Why Schools Must Compete for Pupils Now More Than Ever

The numbers don’t lie – birth rates have fallen consistently over the last ten years and school enrolment is shrinking as a result. By 2028, 207,000 fewer pupils will be entering nursery and primary schools, a decline of 4.5%.

As demographics shift, the education landscape is changing fast. Less demand means more competition between schools. Those that don’t take action now will feel the financial fallout sooner than they expect. So what can you do to stay ahead?

Crunching the numbers

From the early 2000s, more and more babies were born every year. During this period, many schools expanded in anticipation of increased demand. This trend peaked in 2012 with 729,674 births – secondary schools are still seeing the impact of this today, with total pupil numbers expected to peak in 2026/27. 

However, since then, birth rates have been in steady decline, falling to 591,072 in 2023. As a result, the total pupil population is expected to fall by around 436,000 between 2022/23 and 2028/29. Now, schools face the opposite problem – they have too many seats and not enough students to fill them. 

Unfortunately, this isn’t just a temporary blip. According to current estimates, numbers will continue to fall by an additional 382,000 between 2028/29 and 2032/33. Now more than ever, it’s crucial for schools to think strategically about how to stay ahead of the competition. 

Social and economic factors

Whilst birth rates play a significant role, there are a range of other factors that influence the demand for school places. One major consideration is migration – with families both migrating to and moving around a local area. This is driven by many factors, such as housing and welfare reforms. Whilst successful regeneration might attract families to certain areas, economic downturn might lead to depopulation in others. 

This means that some schools may continue to thrive, whilst others face devastating decline. Recognising these trends is crucial for schools to adapt and respond effectively to shifting demographics within their local context. 

Another significant factor is parental choice. With more options than ever, parents are increasingly considering school reputation, performance, and other standout features when making a decision on where to send their children. In 2023, 92.5% of parents received an offer from their first choice of primary school. As more schools compete to be the first choice for families, admissions can no longer be left to chance.

The financial fallout

As educators, we value our pupils for who they are, not as numbers on a balance sheet. But the truth remains that school funding is directly tied to student numbers. So, when those numbers shrink, school budgets feel the squeeze – making it harder to deliver the high-quality education that every child deserves.

Although class sizes are getting smaller, the cost of school supplies, staff salaries, energy bills and other day-to-day expenditures remain stubbornly high. Even a small decline in pupil numbers can put schools under serious financial strain. In order to survive, many schools will be forced to make difficult decisions – from making cuts to merging with other schools. Others may be forced to close down. 

Don’t wait until it’s too late. Schools that invest in marketing today will ensure they stand out in an increasingly competitive landscape, safeguarding their future against cuts and closures. 

More marketing, more visibility, more pupils

For a long time, marketing has been considered by many schools as a luxury. Now, it can mean the difference between staying open and shutting down for good. It’s time for schools to shift their mindset and recognise marketing as a top priority. 

Remember, parents have more options than ever before. But if they don’t know what makes your school special, they won’t choose it. An effective marketing strategy allows you to showcase your strengths and stand out from the crowd. 

Our marketing experts are here to help

• Raise your school profile: We can work with you to build a compelling brand identity that makes your school the first choice for parents and pupils.
  
• Maximise your online presence: Most parents research schools online first – we can make sure your school website and social media captures their attention.
  
• Share your story: With school prospectuses, newsletters, and other communication tools, we can help you to showcase your achievements and connect with the local community. 

As experts in branding, integrated marketing and graphic design, our Marketing Team can help you to attract more families and boost admissions, ensuring your school’s long-term sustainability and success. 

Contact us today

The trend of falling pupil numbers shows no sign of reversing. 

If your school isn’t already investing in marketing, it’s time to start. 

Get in touch to receive first-class, friendly advice and find out more about our Marketing services.